It sounds like it could be more bad news for a familiar struggling player in the smartphone industry — but take this one with a grain of salt.
Jefferies analyst Peter Misek is back to his old ways, spreading a tale of gloom and doom regarding Research in Motion, Ltd. (TSE:RIM).
Regarding RIM’s ambiguous “Q1 2013” launch of its upcoming BlackBerry 10 (BB10) smartphone operating system and new device lineup, he warns, “We had hoped for a January launch but now see a March launch as more likely. Also, our checks point to a tough November quarter, with replenishment rates decreasing as channel partners are cautious on holding RIM inventory. We think the business uncertainty means parties are unlikely to acquire or license from RIM until BB10 launches.”
He adds, “We still believe a third ecosystem [in addition to iOS and Android] will emerge, but the probability of BB10 filling the role is wholly dependent on whether RIM can convince Samsung, Huawei, and ZTE to license. Baidu, Huawei, and others are pursuing their own operating systems. We also see Win 8 as somewhat of a threat but conflicting reviews, less-than-stellar developer feedback, and a desire by Microsoft to make hardware directly make Win 8.”
So far if RIM has a licensing plan up its sleeve, it hasn’t announced it yet. Thus far all of the RIM’s announced BB10 devices have been first-party designs, the company’s traditional bread and butter.
An analyst claims the RIMdenberg won’t be delivering BB10 devices as early as anticipated.
[Image Source: Jason Mick/Global Tech News LLC]
Of course Mr. Misek had previously told All Things Digital, “It’s going to be terrible with a scoop of worse for August.”
Instead RIM handily beat Mr. Misek’s financial prediction. The fiscal surprise came thanks to strong cost cutting, and was in spite of the fact that RIM largely met Mr. Misek’s gloomy prediction on the unit sales front.
The facts are simple — RIM has delayed BB10 by over a year so far. And its volumes lay decimated at a fraction of their former glory.
However, it’s worth taking Mr. Misek and other analysts’ “inside” information with a bit of skepticism, until the same news comes straight from horse’s mouth (which it oft does). After all, those same aforementioned dire metrics have certain parties greedily eyeing a fire sale purchase of the embattled phonemaker, and every bit of extra bad news — true or not — likely sweetens the price.